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Romney 11, Washington 8, Obama 7, Sandy 6, Boehner 6, Florida 5, Europe 5, Jonathan 4, America 3, Chicago 3, Karl Rove 3, Us 3, Harry Reid 3, John Boehner 3, Cleveland 3, Phillips 3, California 2, Gabby Giffords 2, Geico 2, Aarp 2,
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  MSNBC    The Daily Rundown    News/Business. The day's  
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    November 8, 2012
    6:00 - 7:00am PST  

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just remarkable. doing that much better the second time around than the first time? they beat back the tides of history and made history. all right if it's way too early, mike, what time is it? >> time for "morning joe" but right now it is time for our old pal chuck todd with all the latest. back to business. president obama back in washington. guess what? nobody's wasting any time trying to find a way to avoid the fiscal cliff dive. republican leaders on capitol hill sound like there's some deal making to be had had but will they end up on agreeing to just put it off for a few more months? plus wlab do, what does a b dollars get you these days? it cranked out a ton of tv ads for the super pacs on both sides but was it all worth it in the end? we'll do a little autopsy on that. cookie monster. new details on how the obama campaign's victory was driven by what's proving to be the most intensive online data mining
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operation in the history of political campaigning. good morning from washington. it's about 1,150 days until the iowa caucuses. i kid. actually, i'm not kidding about the number of days. it's thursday, november 8th. 2012. this is "the daily rundown." i'm chuck todd. right to my first reads. this is the white house's first full day back to work and there is no rest for the campaign weary. a slew of deadlines are coming up at the end of the year, the biggest is the unfinished business on taxes. it means the president and this congress have a lot of compromising to do. it is a political showdown that, if the past is any guide, seems destined to get a little ugly. but we'll see. fresh off his wednesday morning victory lap, it was deja vu all over again for a bunch of people here in washington, including the president. he's back to a decidedly less glamorous task of trying to navigate what is still a very polarized washington.
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>> mr. president, do you believe you have a mandate for your second term? >> thank you, guys. >> hours before he landed back in d.c., the president, who has insisted on tax increases for the rich spoke by phone with house speaker john boehner. to begin talks on how to prevent the country's economy from going over the so-called fiscal cliff. both boehner and snart majority leader harry reid sounded conciliatory notes yesterday. >> mr. president, this is your moment. we're ready to be led. not as democrats or republicans, but as americans. >> it's better to dance than to fight. it's better to work together. >> boehner even opened the door to raising new revenues, code for taxes, though not through tax rates. he does put on some conditions. >> in order to garner republican support for new revenues, the president must be willing to reduce spending and shore up entitlement programs that are the primary drivers of our debt.
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>> so that is a shift in a negotiating position. now boehner suggested temporarily extending the current tax rates, pushing serious negotiations on a broader tax deal into 2013. while the president has hinted in the past that he's willing to include the issues of social security and medicare in the fiscal negotiations, what's not clear is whether the rest of his party is going to be willing to go along on that score. >> i want to work together but i want everyone to also understand, you can't push us around. >> though the white house said in a statement that the message voters sent was that "leaders in both parties need to put aside their partisan interests," vice president biden was a bit more blunt traveling on air force two, biden told reporters off camera but on the record, "there was a clear sort of mandate about people coming much closer to our view about how to deal with tax policy. i just think it is going to take time for the republicans to sort
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of digest what the consequences are for them internally." in our exit polls, 47% of voters told us tax rates should increase for voters making more than $250,000 a year. 35% said tax rates shouldn't go up for anyone. and 13% said everyone should see a tax hike. add up the 13% and the 45%, you get 58%. that's a pretty big majority. that includes obviously some people that voted for mitt romney. the question is, when does the white house try to begin fiscal negotiations in earnest? is it going to be in the next week? and do they do this before the end of the year? it is clear that the republicans would love to do temporary deals, small compromises, postpone the big stuff until next year, and perhaps hope the political climate changes a little bit. does the white house realize, and do they come to the conclusion, that this is their best chance to get a big deal that is more on their terms?
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we shall see. all of this is really going to come into focus next week, trust me, folks. meanwhile, romney's loss has prompted the usual hand wringing that you get after some of these things. a blame game, if you will, among republicans. and some soul searching about the future of the party. as romney said good-bye to campaign staff at his boston headquarters yesterday, republican recriminations were already in full swing. one member of the campaign's finance committee told "the washington post," "everybody feels like they were a bunch of well meaning folks who were to use a phrase that governor romney coined to describe his opponent -- way in over their heads." plenty more republicans were more than willing to go on the record. >> the romney campaign did nothing -- zero -- nothing -- in the last few days to jump-start the governor. >> after that first debate, i don't know where that mitt romney went. i mean in the summertime, he was raising a lot of money and he was on lake winnipesaukee, he
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was having fun on the jet ski. >> when conservative commentator ann coulter defended romney, ingraham incredulously disagreed. >> if mitt romney cannot win in this economy, then the tipping point has been reached. we have more takers than makers and it is over. >> i'm sorry, this is going to sound cruel, but some of the times i didn't feel like he was connecting with the material. and i think you have to connect with the material. maybe it's people who have actually been in the trenches for decades, not someone who just was a success in business. >> some republicans are quietly pointing fingers at new jersey governor chris christie for praising the president too much in the handling of -- in the aftermath of hurricane sandy last week. >> if the president of the united states does something good, i'm going to say he did something good and give him credit pore ifor it. but it doesn't take away for a minute i was the first governor in america to endorse mitt
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romney, that i traveled literally tens of thousands of miles for him, raised tens of millions of dollars for him. hurricane sandy doesn't explain the gop's decisive demographic depete. exit polls show republicans lost by wide margins among latinos, african-americans, asian-americans and women. >> you cannot dodge, i think, the reality that the republican party has a woman problem. men are supportive, women are not. you got to look at it. >> what's happened with the republicans is they are the republican party a madmen party in a modern family america and it just doesn't fit anymore. >> in hindsight, senator marco rubio would have been the best choice to run with mitt romney. the gop needs to send a powerful signal to hispanic voters that the party respects them. >> conservative radio host though rush limbaugh fired back. >> don't tell me the republican party doesn't have outreach. we do. but what are we supposed to do now? we supposed -- in order to get the hispanic or latino vote,
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does that mean open the borders and embrace the illegals? if we're not getting the female vote, do we become pro-choice? do we start passing out birth control pills? >> do they really want to go down that road again. eric erickson said it was romney, not conservatives, o who deserved the blame for defeat. tweeting, dear gop, in four years please don't go for the he's the most electable argument." eric erickson has been on that point for months and that's why he was the last person on board in romney world, if you will, when romney eventually got the nomination. some republicans seem anxious for that 2016 search to begin and begin quickly. they themselves want to get involved in the debate in the future of the party, perhaps with their own 2016 ambitions in mind. florida senator marco rubio who has called on republicans to work harder than ever to communicate to minorities.
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guess where he's headed in two weeks? he just happens to be traveling to iowa as a guest of the governor. in a series of media appearances yesterday, virginia governor bob mcdonnell called on the party to change. he press advised a news conference to talk about the election. >> we've got to be a lot more inclusive and open and energetic in wanting people to join our team by expressing why these conservative values are good for people of all races, creeds, colors and national origin. >> the guy repopulation mcdonnell as the chair of the republican governor's association, louisiana governor bobby jindal. i know there are folks who want to analyze the campaign tactics and play monday morning quarterback about the future of the political parties. that may start, by the way, next week. next week will be the first time you'll see a meeting of republicans and quite a bit of hand wringing there.
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it is thursday, which means there are still election results coming in. democrats defending 23 seats in the senate, the results are in. every democratic incumbent on the ballot won tuesday. in montana, senator jon tester won. but he didn't get 50%. that means the libertarian was the difference there. in north dakota, democratic attorney heidi heitkamp defeated republican candidate rick berg. democrats have actually picked up two seats in the senate! well, 1 1/2. we don't know what engus king is going to do. if he caucuses with the democrats, they'll have 55 seats in the house. in california's 36th district, republican congresswoman mary
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bono mack will not be returning to the hill. julia brownley wins the district 26 race. in michigan's first district, dan benishek is declared. republican. 100% reported in arizona's second district, gabby giffords' former seat, though it had had been redriked, democratic congressman ron barber is trailing by about 400 votes but no call there. in arizona's 9th district, 125 vote there. in california, lungren is trailing by less than 200 votes. in florida's 18th district, 100%
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of the vote is in. republican congressman allen west is trailing. seems a little bit too much to overcome. 2,500 votes. he's demanding a recount. you do wonder what happens if the florida presidential has to go in that direction. i'll explain that in a few minutes. north carolina, district 7, 100% in. the democrat incumbent there is in the lead but it is only 500 votes. there will be a runoff in louisiana's third dwikt between two republicans. two races still too close to call at this hour, in washington state, the governor's race is still undecided. we've been down the road here before with washington state. haven't we? the mail-in ballots. talk to us next week. we might have a winner there. then there's florida. we still haven't called in the presidential race, because of the law that requires an automatic recount if the margin is less than .5%. right now with some of those absentee ballots counted, it is just above the less than .5%.
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if it gets to that, here's what i can tell you. republicans in the state would like it waived but mitt romney's campaign would have to waive the automatic recount. they don't want to spend the money. now back to the fiscal cliff face-off. president obama and speaker boehner said all the right things about trying to avoid the worst case scenario but both sides also made a to interpo draw some lines. the question is are they in the sand? are they painted? is there going to be easily blown away? we'll see. capitol hill correspondent kelly o'donnell, you're back. guess what, kelly? there's no vacation. there's no post-election rest. we're diving right in. read between the lines for me here. what did you hear and listen to yesterday? >> i was pacing myself for that no break so i'm ready to go. what i heard, especially coming back from some battleground states, is this does matter to people. the term fiscal cliff may be an awkward term in some respects but voters know about it and certainly in washington, it will
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dominate our conversation going forward. you had both harry reid and john boehner ready to go here, talking about this and they did begin with a tone that suggests a willingness to work together. kind of a post-election glow. but there are real differences. when you have harry reid who now has an even stronger advantage in the senate, talking about they don't want to be push around, he said. he would be willing to be conciliatory, another of his words, but they have a very strong view that voters are telling them that higher tax rates for the wealthiest would be essential to trying to deal with the long-term deficit. now john boehner had a very staged -- and i mean that in the setting type of speech, not in the words that he chose -- but he doesn't always use a teleprompter, doesn't always give a formal speech. >> yeah, this was very carefully done. in fact, i was talking to one white house source who was impressed, like, okay, that was very thoughtful. they think, okay, this is going to be serious. maybe there's something big here to be done.
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go ahead, kelly. >> i think that does suggest that boehner who easily won his re-election and has had time to think about this next piece came out want be to sort of lay down his markers and his i think big take-away is that he does not think this should be done quickly. that's kind of a typical view for republicans that don't do big things fast. they say take it in increments. that would mean having some kind of a package that would mean the fiscal cliff does not kick in january 1st. you wouldn't have the sweeping cuts across the board immediately. you wouldn't have the tax increases immediately. to give a little breathing space for what he believes should be a very serious negotiation that would include entitlements, would include and overhaul of the tax system which a lot of voters seem to want to see happen. it's just how do you get there and what would those new elements be. closing loopholes to raise revenue? that's what republicans want. democrats want to see loopholes closed, but rates increased as well in order to deal with the long-term problems. so a spirit of wanting to work
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together. i think we can give them credit for that today. but they have serious work and not much time to try to get everybody sort of at the table and working. this will dominate our conversation and it is a worthy one to keep us busy. >> kelly o'donnell, i'll be talking with you, i bet you, almost every day -- >> i'll make it our daily date. >> thank you, kelly. up next, it was the most expensive election in american history. it will go down in history as that. but what did the billions buy? we'll have two pac men on here from their super pacs to do a little bit of postmortem on what their money went to. plus, more misery for millions of people already hit hard by hurricane sandy. the latest on the new storm that's making a mess this morning in the northeast. but first a look ahead at the president's schedule today. nothing on camera for now. no post-election press conference -- perhaps yet. nothing on public on fiscal cliff. guessing that happens perhaps
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outside groups poured more than $1 billion into this election, both in the presidential and a bunch of n - non-ballot races. democrats never matched the dollars but managed to hold the house and senate, nonetheless. a piece was written on msnbc.com saying this was karl rove's election nightmare. walk me through the numbers on overall super pac spending, bang for the buck business, all of that. >> well, some pretty striking
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numbers when you look at it. something like $1.3 billion in outside groups by these super pacs and their affiliates in this election. about two-thirds of that on the republican side. but you look at the numbers, the return on investment from these big republican super pacs and they're pretty abysmal. karl rove, there is a study out today by the sunlight foundation looked at rove's crossroads operation, computed 1% return on $100 million spent by american crossroads. pretty bad. you look at some of the other big republican super pacs and they're not much better. chamber of commerce, 5% on $32 million. ending spending now. i think it was 15% on $13 million. not a very good return on the investment for these big republican donors. as we know, and we've discussed,
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you had seven-figure checks from a lot of billionaires pouring in to these. they didn't get very much for their money. >> looking at the democratic side, did they get bang for their buck or did they simply end up on the winning side so it looks like they got bang for their buck? >> well, probably mostly the latter. they obviously, their return on investment is much better, 60%, 70% for the senate majority pac. but this does raise two questions. one is how effective are these outside spending groups in elections. that's one. but there's a broader one, chuck, and it is the health of american democracy when you have these huge donations. a lot of it is secret money through the sister affiliates washing around, you don't know where it's coming from, or you had the limited liability corporations set up at the last minute with no fingerprints,
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giving to the super pacs. i think you're going to see a lot of focus on this by people in the obama administration, the white house, and in the senate saying we got to do something about this and the converse on the republican side is, let's look at some of those big super pac donors to priorities and the democratic super pacs, focus on those. so this is an issue that isn't going to be going away. >> michael isikoff, national investigator correspondent for nbc news, thank you, michael. let me bring in two gentlemen, the amount of money spent by outside groups in the 2012 election cycle was greater than the total outside spending in the last 11 election cycles combined. will super pacs be even bigger players in the coming years or not? bill burton is head of the pro-obama super pac priorities usa. jonathan is the spokes american for the american crossroads super pac. you both are here. i have the mutual assured destruction opinion here that a super pac that goes unresponded to is very effective. the super pac that gets responded to, the two worlds
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collide and eventually mutually assured destruction. i will start with you, jonathan. you guys spent more money and you potentially have more to answer to. what are you telling donors that happened to the money? >> here's the thing. this is what's missing from is cough's analysis. president obama over the course of the campaign outspent mitt romney on television by $154 million from april through november. senate democrats, if you take away the two self-funders in connecticut and pennsylvania outraised. what democrats did in this election effectively was leverage their incumbencies to have huge financial advantages over their republican opponents. we believe that american crossroads by evening out the playing field kept this what was essentially a two-point race at the end. >> you think this would have been a blowout without crossroads. >> it absolutely could have. 345,000 votes separated obama and romney in the four swing states that decided this election. if you're going to say that $150
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million disparity by the president over obama, if that couldn't have taken care of that, we really bounced out. i don't think you would have had a close election otherwise. >> bull burton? analyze his argument there. seems like when you look at it on the money, that that's a fair point. >> on the money. but if you look at the broader context of what this election was, going into it the president had the highest unemployment of any incumbent seeking re-election. i think people thought this would be more like jimmy carter than it turned out to be. let me also say something to jonathan's defense here. because one problem with crossroads' effectiveness i think was that they were supporting a candidate who did not give a clear sense of what his message was or where he wanted to bring things. i think that just for one example on bain, there was a story where ed gillespie said very specifically that they were going to respond to the ads, have people from staples and sports authority saying how great it was that bain came in and helped out their
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communities. they probably read that in the newspaper like, okay, we don't have to do that. but the romney campaign never did it and romney never ended up getting the defense of his business sector experience that he needed. >> let me ask the larger question. anything that happened in this election make either of you think that the future of the super pac, that there, big donors who say, how effective was it really? i mean do you feel as if donors are going to go to you and say, we wrote you all this money, and didn't win. >> our donors weren't just giving in august during the convention when things were going well or october after the debate. we had a lot of donors giving in the doldrums of september that were giving in july. they knew this was an uphill battle. presidential elections are dramatically structured to favor the incumbent. you have running against all these republicans in the primary, emerges broke. president obama who's raising all of this primary money gets to unload on him for four months. structurally you have to have some kind of organization that's going to be able to push. >> are you the mutually assured
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creation? if this didn't exist, would you guys have existed? >> no. listening to what jonathan's saying here, i think there's cause to concern the capacity republicans have to raise money. he's right, even in the dark days for mitt romney they were still raising tons and tons of cash. and so i think that going into the future as long as there are super pacs and as long as the rules aren't changed, yes, we will be in answer. >> jonathan, how you guys spent your money. was it too much on tv advising? are you going to go an autopsy and say should we have spent more money in different states? should it have been the job of the super pacs to expand the battleground map? what do you think could you have done different strategically. forget the money. >> strategically, outside groups are going to be hamstrung with any get out the vote efforts beep don't have a brand that translates in columbus, ohio. the labor unions which basically run turnout for the democratic party, we don't have that analog. it is run by the local
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republican parties so we can't go in and do a lot of on the ground door knocking. we tried it in 2010. it was very difficult because we don't have the store front and we don't have the brand. we did expand the map at the end. it obviously wasn't successful. i just don't know how we could have done it differently. if you look at the exit polls, the way that obama won was on the ground in cleveland with a lot of the minority voters. i just don't know that's a job for super pacs. >> do you feel the same way that super pacs can't do this? they can't be ground efforts because they don't have a brand? >> i don't think that they can be ground efforts. you have to leave that to the campaign. romney failed on that. or the parties. but i will say the republican side suffered in some ways from having too much money. because there were all these groups, crossroads may not have a brand but each group can have one specific message that you keep driving and driving. because they had crossroads up one week, restore up one week, afp up one week -- >> i've heard this critique. i've always wondered that myself. >> except that the messages were more or less the same.
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crossroads was coordinating with these other groups -- >> because could you. that's legal. >> but here's the thing. by the end of the campaign, people trusted mitt romney on issues of the economy so we believe that our job was done. the glut of our ads was on jobs, the debt and that sector -- >> you guys focused on mitt romney. you guys never did focus on mitt romney. why? >> we focused on the record of president obama, what we said was the failed economic record -- >> in hindsight -- >> it worked. what a super pac can't do is push the candidate over the line. the candidate has to get his own positive result. it is very, very difficult for a super pac to do an effective positive ad. that's just kind of outside of what we do. >> think it sounds like you're both going to be fully employed. bill burton, jonathan collegio. we're going to try do autopsies on this election, today in "first read" we have a great nugget on the i-4 longer a swin? data says that may be case.
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a market preview. and the change faces on the hill and an historic shift in the democratic party's diversity in the how was representatives. but first, today's trivia question -- who was the most senior member of the house to lose re-election on tuesday? in either party. first correct answer gets a follow-up thursday promise. [ male announcer ] alka-seltzer plus presents the cold truth.
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the dow had its worst day of the year yesterday. so what happens now? opening bell just rang. let's get right to the market rundown. becky, yesterday morning you
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previewed this. you said it was going to be a bad day. you said it was all europe's fault. >> it was all of europe's fault in the morning. >> i was just going to say. this morning all of the spin is -- europe played a small role, this is all post-election fear on the fiscal cliff. >> there's truth in both of these statements. what happened yesterday morning was, again, it looked like things were going to be okay. we did talk about how the financials were indicated lower, energy stocks were indicated lower. those two sectors are expected to get hit the hardest by an obama win. that's how the day start out. then you had europe that came in. when we spoke yesterday at this time, it looked like we were down by triple digits, maybe down by 100 points for the dow. the dow ended the day down by more than 300 points. a huge part of that is the fiscal cliff because it became more and more evident as you heard from both sides of the aisle through the course of the day they're both talking about compromise but both sides' idea of compromise is these two sides are really not matching up. this is going to be a much more complicated problem than people had been anticipating.
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they knew it wasn't going to be easy but all through the day market analysts, economists started raising predictions of the likelihood of going over the fiscal cliff. we started talking about what that would mean. this board right here, the five worst post-election trading days. yesterday came in -- number three in the rankings. down 2.3% for the dow. really it started on concerns out of europe as we turned back to these other unclear situations. >> becky -- >> it was piled on by fiscal cliff. >> this is proof that wall street just -- apparently they like republican administrations better than democratic administrations. >> i don't think that's the case. i think this is a case where the fiscal cliff is a huge, huge issue. these two sides are very far apart and we're back at status quo which got us nowhere since the summer of 2011. people realized, holy cow, we might actually go over this cliff. that's bad news. >> all right. we shall see. i'm more of an optimist. i think they'll at least extend
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the runway a little bit. >> but that could be bad news, too. we have problems we need to deal with. we'll talk more about this later. >> you got it. thank you much. the times, they are a changing on capitol hill that is. the growing power of the non-white male in the next congress. that's coming up. "the daily rundown" will be back in 30 seconds. on our radar this morning -- house and senate, the census. jesse jackson striking a deal with the feds. but first, to the senate where a
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record number of women -- 20 of them -- will hold the title u.s. senator next year compared to the 15 seats held by women right now. five new women senators joined the pack. the senate also saw a slight gain in minorities. five minority senators will now hold seats next year as opposed to four right now. two new senators elect are responsible for the change. hawaii's hirono. republicans held on to their majority but they will be made up of more white men next year by losses of women incumbents and minority incumbent members. only one african-american and five latinos will remain in the gop conference. that assumes -- and if allen
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west does in fact lose his re-election campaign, he's demanding a recount. only one minority republican was newly elected on tuesday. mullen from oklahoma. he is a cherokee native american. that's compared to 17 minority democrats that were elected. speaking of the house democratic caucus, look at this. white men no longer make up a majority of house democrats. when the new congress begins in january, democrats expect to have 61 women, 43 african-americans, 27 san hispanics and 10 asian-americans leading their caucus. newly re-elected member of congress jesse jackson jr. is in the middle of a plea deal for misuse of congressional funds according to the "chicago sun times." the congressman has not plead guilty but discussions with federal authorities are ongoing. jackson won re-election tuesday despite being absent from congress for medical reasons since june. finally, former
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congresswoman gabby giffords is expected to attend a sentencing hearing today for jared lautner. her husband is expected to address the court. the complicated recovery effort of hurricane sandy is now compounded by the nor'easter. monmuth, new jersey suffered from last week's storm. watching the snowfall on this area must have been demoralizing, to say the least. >> reporter: certainly was. a lot of people are resigned about what's going on here, a lot of surprise that not only did they have a hurricane last week, but not even a week and a half later they had a nor'easter that dumped this much snow down here. we're in front of a makeshift dump. this is the monmouth beach bathing pavilion. this is a very beautiful place to visit but now it looks like this. 3,000 tons of garbage and debris
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that's in this dump right now. but it is not just the garbage people are throwing out. this is just the damage that you saw from sandy. now more damage that you are seeing from the nor'easter that passed through. they're taking it in by the truck full and they are taking it out by the truck full. they've been doing it all day. they were doing it yesterday. they will be doing it tomorrow. you're seeing this up and down the coast here in new jersey. there are still 390,000 customers without power across the state. people are getting very frustrated. there are people that have not had pow er since sandy hit. that's ten full days. there are others who had power, then had it cruelly taken away after this nor'easter hit. the snow when you woke up, chuck, looked very nice out here. but, unfortunately, it's not going to be very pretty. it is going to turn into a slushy mess. >> thanks very much. up next, i got my political
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panel here. we've got a big look at just how the obama campaign pulled off their victory. but first, the white house soup of the day -- this is good comfort food soup. loaded potato. are they loaded for bear at the white house. you're watching "the daily rundown" on msnbc. is what drives us to broadcast the world's biggest events in 3d, or live to your seat high above the atlantic ocean. it's what drives us to create eco-friendly race tracks, batteries that power tomorrow's cars, nearly indestructible laptops, and the sustainable smart towns of the future. at panasonic, we're driven to make what matters most better. just another way we're engineering a better world for you. [ male announcer ] the rhythm of life. [ whistle blowing ] where do you hear that beat? campbell's healthy request soup
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again? it's embarrassing it's embarrassing! we can see you carl. we can totally see you. come on you're better than this...all that prowling around. yeah, you're the king of the jungle. have you thought about going vegan carl? hahaha!! you know folks who save hundreds of dollars by switching to geico sure are happy. how happy are they jimmy? happier than antelope with night-vision goggles. nice! get happy. get geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. it was this day in 1892 when former president grover cleveland beat incumbent president benjamin harrison to become the only president ever to win non-consecutive terms in the white house. therefore, why we have this awkward explanation to our kids that there have been 43 american presidents but we say that there are 44. thank you, non-consecutive termer grover cleveland. lots of books will be written about the 2012 campaign, some of
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them will be read. many of those books will focus on how the obama campaign won this election tactically with one of the most sophisticated market research efforts in history. data mining. you'll hear that phrase a lot. the obama campaign was able to find voters in key battleground states, get out the vote, talk to them in ways campaigns hadn't talked to voters before. democratic strategist jamal simmons, jean cummings and michael shear. michael, everybody's going to have a first draft of this eventually. you get in, you have some exclusive first looks at this anim analytic machine that was chicago. walk us through. what do you got? >> it works a lot of ways. basically they had a team he of people including a chief scientist that was five times the size what have they had in 2008. an enormous expansion. they were able to do things that they'd never done before and no campaign had ever done before.
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they brought in, for instance, their media buying targeting operation in house. it was no longer outsourced. it was tied in to what their field operation was doing. they had data from that. their daily tracking polls, analytic polls, state polls. they knew exactly where they wanted to buy for individual slices of voters. women who were 35 years old who were living in miami-dade. what tv show were they watching. we'll find that tv show. another thing they did is, instead of just having lists of targets to do whatever they wanted to do -- raise money, get volunteers, things like that -- their analytics team ran models to give them prioritized list of targets. they were calling the most likely person or not list to respond to whatever they were doing, not just calling anyone on the list. if you call for volunteers, you know this sort of a person is going to be able to -- >> jean cummins, i remember going through it, you learn a little bit but not everything. just even simply the way they
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categorize certain things. they had spent so much money on basically what they had as sort of internet -- i think they labeled it internet or internet technology or computer. it was all having to do with this building of this giant analytics machine. there was an early part going, wow, they're going through a lot of money. remember that? >> that was also the offices, the burn rate was how many offices -- >> this is very labor intensive. >> they did it old-fashioned and high-tech. they did both ends of it. and we were struck as well that when you -- when we opened up those early fec reports -- frankly, almost all the way through -- >> you did a lot of this, i remember. >> you always expect the tv guy, the ad guy, to be at the top. and it's this we are jb what? what company? >> this one internet company that sort of i guess was the front, if you will, for a lot of this stuff. >> it was. it's where his former get out the vote team and the high-tech end of it had gone out and created their own company.
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it was their company. >> jamal, the issues is going to be though, they have done this incredible job electing, and then re-electing barack obama. >> right. >> when they tried to apply this to an election that didn't have barack obama on the ballot -- >> that's right. >> we've had this experiment. it was called the 2010 mid-terms. it didn't work. can this become transferable to -- and become the democratic party's method for the next decade? >> yes. the way i would look at it, i would look at the way the campaign went after latino voters in particular. right? african-american voters, you have barack obama -- >> that was unique. that probably sort of charged the game in virginia or ohio. >> you're not going to get a 15% bump in african-americans from ohio with some other random white guy who shows up. you want to go after issues that are important. i think democrats are also going to have to figure out how do we talk more to working class white voters and get them -- >> funny you say that. do you think the democratic party should look at the white
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male vote and be concerned in the same way republicans are lookingality the latino vote? >> absolutely. from just a mechanics perspective we have to figure it out. from two, a national health perspective, really do you want a sort of white male party and a brown party with white women kind of being split back and forth? seems -- >> that sounds like a lot of southern races. you saw this up close 15 years ago. >> absolutely. i remember -- you can talk about all this data. i remember the gore campaign in 2000, our big technological move was putting a webcam in the campaign headquarters so people could watch online. >> i'm sure it was fascinating. >> big legacy thing that will help democrats in the future is never before has the democratic party been able to combine their data sets, fund-raisers, online organizers, their voter file which has been around a long time, their volunteer database. it took months in chicago to do this. this is something that lasts. >> this will be a gift to the democratic party. >> but just eight years ago we were talking about, ken mehlman
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and karl rove have just made this an unbeatable party every improve upon, and the incentive is to the loser often, to go and upgrade. so we see everything improving. but i don't think that the machinery that rove and melman built in '04 was flawed in this cycle. i think you saw a few other things. evangelical votes down in wrong places. the white turnout, as important as the white men are, had it been just a couple more points, race could have been very different. so the machinery is not necessarily the problem here. >> it all works for the 47%, 48%. candidates matter sometimes. sometimes we go the other way, but we say, no, no, no, maybe candidates are responsible for the other 2. who's the most senior member
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of the house to lose election tuesday? the answer, congressman pete stark. first elected in 1972. he was fifth in seniority in the house. stark is not the oldest incumbent to lose. that title goes to 87-year-old roscoe bartlett of maryland. you have a question, e-mail us. [ woman ] ring. ring. progresso. in what world do potatoes, bacon and cheese add up to 100 calories? your world. ♪ [ whispers ] real bacon... creamy cheese... 100 calories... [ chef ] ma'am [ male announcer ] progresso. you gotta taste this soup. 100 calories... [ chef ] ma'am [ female announcer ] some people like to pretend a flood could never happen to them.
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quick update on the presidential race in florida. miami-dade officials, while still counting in this hour, 518 absentee ballots still to be counted, they said they will be done sometime today. this will be the fourth county. we think there are counts available in five others. the only reason we won't call it is because it's so close to the automatic recount procedure. .5%.
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let's bring back the panel. i gave you guys both a choice. fiscal cliff, republican hand wringing. michael shear, you picked fiscal cliff. what's it going to look like? obviously, republicans want a delay, hope for a better political climate. do you think this white house will go down the road saying let's go big now because this is our last chance to do it? ironically, the last chance we'll have with great political capital. >> i think they're going to try hard to get a top line number. they don't have to solve all this. they got to get a top line agreement before the end of the year. all sides know the math here. they've been talking about this for two years. there's no secret. >> it's not like you have to wait. do you want one, two, three, four, or five? >> and you're coming out of an election -- boehner had revenue on the table before. he said he had revenue. that's not a big deal. and you can do it this time while -- yeah. i haven't slept in two days.
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the point is you can do it on the top line and force negotiations. >> what i was going to say, with romney you can -- romney was out there saying, i do want to get rid of these loopholes. so that's on the table. that's a republican plan right now. you can lower the top line rates, eliminate the loopholes, and raise a bunch of money. everyone can get along. there's a space here to do it. >> anxious to see the role paul ryan is going to play. republican hand wringing. this sandy business, they've got to stop. is it getting a little absurd? >> they have to think over things. you have two warring camps. mcdonnell was confrontational. people are lining up behind him. what they lack is a leader, a leader who can step up. jeb bush might be able to do it, but there is no leader that can unite these camps. >> democrats, 1988. shameless plug. you first? >> my brother and his wife, my sister-in-law had a new child on election day morning. family is very happy.
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new nephew. >> very nice, and his name is ballot. >> my shameless plug is for the white house press pool who unfailingly was working hard all through this election. no one saw them. on election day, the call time was 6:00 a.m. they ended at 3:00 a.m. and had three hours sleep the night before. >> never met him. nate silver, "new york times" >> very nice. that's it. got to go. chris jansing, see you. buy. r 2000... r 2000... 1200 calories a day. carbs are bad. carbs are good. the story keeps changing. so i'm not listening... to anyone but myself. i know better nutrition when i see it: great grains. great grains cereal starts whole and stays whole. see the seam? more processed flakes look nothing like natural grains. you can't argue with nutrition you can see. great grains. search great grains and see for yourself. for multi grain flakes that are an excellent source of fiber try great grains banana nut crunch and cranberry almond crunch.
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